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Benchmark Priors Revisited.

Default prior choices fixing Zellner's g are predominant in the Bayesian Model Averaging literature, but tend to concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models. The paper demonstrates this supermodel effect and proposes to address it by a hyper-g prior, whose data-dependent shrinkage adapts...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Feldkircher, Martin
Otros Autores: Zeugner, Stefan
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Washington : International Monetary Fund, 2009.
Colección:IMF Working Papers.
Temas:
Acceso en línea:Texto completo

MARC

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245 1 0 |a Benchmark Priors Revisited. 
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505 0 |a Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I Introduction; II Bayesian Model Averaging under Zellner's g Prior; II. 1 Popular Settings for Zellner's g; III The Hyper-g Prior: A Beta Prior on the Shrinkage Factor; IV A Simulation Study; V Growth Determinants Revisited; VI Concluding Remarks; A Technical Appendix; A. 1 Consistency of the Hyper-g Prior; A. 2 Relationship between Hyper-g Prior and EBL; A. 3 The Shrinkage Factor and Goodness-of-Fit; A. 4 The Posterior Predictive Distribution and the Hyper-g Prior; A. 5 The Beta-binomial Prior over the Model Space; A. 6 Charts and Tables. 
504 |a ReferencesFootnotes. 
520 |a Default prior choices fixing Zellner's g are predominant in the Bayesian Model Averaging literature, but tend to concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models. The paper demonstrates this supermodel effect and proposes to address it by a hyper-g prior, whose data-dependent shrinkage adapts posterior model distributions to data quality. Analytically, existing work on the hyper-g-prior is complemented by posterior expressions essential to fully Bayesian analysis and to sound numerical implementation. A simulation experiment illustrates the implications for posterior inference. Furthermore, 
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