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Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Caribbean.

This paper develops country-specific VAR models with block exogeneity restrictions to analyze how exogenous factors affect business cycles in the Eastern Caribbean. It finds that external shocks play a key role, explaining more than half of macroeconomic fluctuations in the region. Domestic business...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Sosa, Sebastian
Otros Autores: Cashin, Paul
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Washington : International Monetary Fund, 2009.
Colección:IMF Working Papers.
Temas:
Acceso en línea:Texto completo

MARC

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505 0 |a I. Introduction; II. Econometric Approach; A. Specification and Identification Strategy; B. Block Structure, Variables, and Data; Tables; 1. Block Exogeneity Restrictions of the VAR Model; C. Estimation; III. Business Cycle Responses to External Shocks: Empirical Results; 2. Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations in the Eastern Caribbean; 3. Climatic Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU; Figures; 1. Natural Disasters and GDP Growth in the Eastern Caribbean; 2. Response of Real Output to Climatic Shocks; 3. Response of Real Output to Climatic Shocks. 
505 8 |a 4. Oil Price Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU4. Response of Real Output to Oil Price Shocks; 5. Real GDP Growth in the Eastern Caribbean and Industrial Countries; 5. External Demand Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU; 6. Response of Real Output to External Demand Shocks; 6. World Real Interest Rate Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU; IV. Concluding Remarks; 7. Response of Real Output to World Real Interest Rate Shocks; Appendix Tables; A1. Antigua and Barbuda: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; A2. Dominica: Variance Decomposition of Real Output. 
505 8 |a A3. Grenada: Variance Decomposition of Real OutputA4. St. Kitts and Nevis: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; A5. St. Lucia: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; A6. St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; References. 
520 |a This paper develops country-specific VAR models with block exogeneity restrictions to analyze how exogenous factors affect business cycles in the Eastern Caribbean. It finds that external shocks play a key role, explaining more than half of macroeconomic fluctuations in the region. Domestic business cycles are especially vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions, with a natural disaster leading to an immediate and significant fall in output-but the effects do not appear to be persistent. Oil price and external demand shocks also contribute significantly to domestic macroeconomic fluctuation. 
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650 0 |a Natural disasters  |x Economic aspects. 
651 0 |a Caribbean Area  |x Economic conditions. 
650 6 |a Catastrophes naturelles  |x Aspect économique. 
651 6 |a Caraïbes (Région)  |x Conditions économiques. 
650 7 |a Economic history  |2 fast 
650 7 |a Natural disasters  |x Economic aspects  |2 fast 
651 7 |a Caribbean Area  |2 fast 
700 1 |a Cashin, Paul. 
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830 0 |a IMF Working Papers. 
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