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Debt Dynamics and Global Imbalances.
We use a general-equilibrium model to explain the rise in global trade and payments imbalances since the mid-1990s, and then to construct adjustment paths to a steady state. Assuming that the shocks giving rise to the imbalances do not suddenly reverse, simulated movements in the U.S. trade deficit...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
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| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Washington :
International Monetary Fund,
2007.
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| Colección: | IMF Working Papers.
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- I. Introduction; II. Stylized Facts; A. Evolution of Global Imbalances; Figures; 1. U.S. External Balances, 1979-2005; 2. Movements in Real U.S. Trade Balance: 1995-2005 Versus 1979-89; 3. U.S. Imports and Exports, 1980-2005; 4. U.S. Real Effective Exchange Rate: 1995-2005 Versus 1979-89; 5. U.S. Shares in World GDP, 1980-2005; 6. Ratio of Real Private Consumption to GDP, 1985-20005; 7. U.S. Net Foreign Assets, 1982-2005; 8. U.S. External Assets and Liabilities, 1982-2005; 9. ROW Holdings of Official Reserves, 1971-2005; B. Real Interest Rates; Tables.
- 1. U.S. Real Interest Rates and Growth Rates, 1900-200510. Yield on Inflation-Indexed U.S. Treasuries, 1997-2006; 2. Real Returns on U.S. External Assets and Liabilities, 1953-2004; 11. Real Yields on U.S. External Assets and Liabilities, 1977-2005; 12. U.S. Net International Investment Income, 1977-2005; 13. Valuation Adjustments to U.S. NFA, Cumulative Average, 1983-2005; III. Debt Dynamics; 14. Yields on BAA Corporate Bonds Versus U.S. Treasuries, 1953-2006; IV. Simulation Model; A. Structure; B. Parameterization; V. Simulation Results; A. Initial Equilibrium; B. Calibration of Shocks.
- C. Baseline Simulation15. Baseline Shocks to Model, 1995-2025; 16. Baseline Simulation Results, 1995-2025; 17. Baseline Simulation Results, 1995-2100; 18. U.S. Real Growth Rate and Marginal Product of Capital; 19. U.S. and ROW Consumption, 1995-2075; D. Alternative Paths for the Shocks; 20. Larger and More Drawn-Out Shocks, 1995-2100; 21. Phase-Out of International Reserve Accumulation, 1995-2025; 22. "Hard-Landing" Scenario, 1995-2025; E. Alternative Parameter Values; 23. Higher Initial Real Interest Rate, 1995-2100; 25. Alternative Trade Price Elasticities, 1995-2150.
- 24. Increasing Asset Substitutability, 1995-210026. Ratio of U.S. to Row GDP, 1995-2010; 27. Higher Foreign Growth, 1995-2025; F. Fiscal Policy; 28. "Twin Deficits": Effect on Trade Balance of Change in Fiscal Balance; VI. Concluding Remarks; Appendix: Consumption, Wealth and Real Interest Rates; A. Infinite-Horizon Model; B. Finite-Horizon Model; References.