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Macroeconomic Patterns and Monetary Policy in the Run-up to Asset Price Busts.
We find that inflation, output and the stance of monetary policy do not typically display unusual behavior ahead of asset price busts. By contrast, credit, shares of investment in GDP, current account deficits, and asset prices typically rise, providing useful, if not perfect, leading indicators of...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
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| Autor principal: | |
| Otros Autores: | , |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Washington :
International Monetary Fund,
2009.
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| Colección: | IMF Working Papers.
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Asset Price Busts in the Modern Era; A. Defining Asset Price Busts; 1. House Price and Stock Price Busts from 1970 to 2008; 1. Asset Price Busts; B. Patterns in macroeconomic Variables in the Run-Up to a Bust; 2. Selected Macroeconomic Variables Before and During House Price Busts; 3. Selected Macroeconomic Variables Before and During Stock Price Busts; 4. Selected Macroeconomic Variables Before and During High-Cost and Other House Price Busts, 1985-2008.
- III. How Good are These Variables as Indicators of Asset Price Busts?2. Classification of Observations Based on variable Thresholds; 3. Percentiles Used as Thresholds for Alarms; 5. The Probability of an Asset Price Bust; 6. The Failure of the Indicators to Predict an Asset Price Bust; 4. Marginal Probabilities Based on Probit Regressions; IV. Macroeconomic Patterns Ahead of the Current Crisis; 7. Recent Developments in House and Stock Prices; 8. Warning Signs for Recent House Price Busts; 9. Macroeconomic Patterns Underlying Recent House Price Booms.
- 10. Recent House Price Booms and Household Balance SheetsA. The Role of Monetary Policy; 11. Monetary Conditions Leading up to the Current Crisis; 12. Inflation and Output for Advnaced Economies in Recent Years; 13. House Prices and Monetary Conditions; 14. Stock Prices and Monetary Conditions; 15. Growth Rate of Nominal Credit Relative to GDP and Real Policy Rates; 16. Selected Macroeconomic Variables Before and During House Price Busts; 17. Selected Macroeconomic Variables Before and During Stock Price Busts; V. Conclusion; Data Appendix; References; Footnotes.