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Uncertainty in Risk Assessment : the Representation and Treatment of Uncertainties by Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Methods.

Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Asses...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Aven, Terje
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Wiley, 2013.
Temas:
Acceso en línea:Texto completo

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520 |a Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic k. 
505 0 |a Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: The Representation and Treatment of Uncertainties by Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Methods; Contents; Preface; Part I: Introduction; 1 Introduction; 1.1 Risk; 1.1.1 The concept of risk; 1.1.2 Describing/measuring risk; 1.1.3 Examples; 1.2 Probabilistic risk assessment; 1.3 Use of risk assessment: The risk management and decision-making context; 1.4 Treatment of uncertainties in risk assessments; 1.5 Challenges: Discussion; 1.5.1 Examples; 1.5.2 Alternatives to the probability-based approaches to risk and uncertainty assessment; 1.5.3 The way ahead. 
505 8 |a 4.2.1 Building possibility distributions from nested probability intervals4.2.2 Justification for using the triangular possibility distribution; 4.2.3 Building possibility distributions using Chebyshev's inequality; 5 Evidence theory for treating uncertainty; 6 Methods of uncertainty propagation; 6.1 Level 1 uncertainty propagation setting; 6.1.1 Level 1 purely probabilistic framework; 6.1.2 Level 1 purely possibilistic framework; 6.1.3 Level 1 hybrid probabilistic-possibilistic framework; 6.2 Level 2 uncertainty propagation setting; 6.2.1 Level 2 purely probabilistic framework. 
505 8 |a 6.2.2 Level 2 hybrid probabilistic-evidence theory framework7 Discussion; 7.1 Probabilistic analysis; 7.2 Lower and upper probabilities; 7.3 Non-probabilistic representations with interpretations other than lower and upper probabilities; 7.4 Hybrid representations of uncertainty; 7.5 Semi-quantitative approaches; References -- Part II; Part III: Practical Applications; 8 Uncertainty representation and propagation in structural reliability analysis; 8.1 Structural reliability analysis; 8.1.1 A model of crack propagation under cyclic fatigue; 8.2 Case study; 8.3 Uncertainty representation. 
505 8 |a 8.4 Uncertainty propagation8.5 Results; 8.6 Comparison to a purely probabilistic method; 9 Uncertainty representation and propagation in maintenance performance assessment; 9.1 Maintenance performance assessment; 9.2 Case study; 9.3 Uncertainty representation; 9.4 Uncertainty propagation; 9.4.1 Maintenance performance assessment in the case of no epistemic uncertainty on the parameters; 9.4.2 Application of the hybrid probabilistic-theory of evidence uncertainty propagation method; 9.5 Results; 10 Uncertainty representation and propagation in event tree analysis; 10.1 Event tree analysis. 
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