Cargando…
Understanding uncertainty /
"We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill."--Dennis Lindley Accessibly written...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Hoboken, New Jersey :
Wiley.,
[2013]
|
| Edición: | Revised edition. |
| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- Understanding Uncertainty; Contents; Preface; Prologue; Chapter 1: Uncertainty; 1.1. Introduction; 1.2. Examples; 1.3. Suppression of Uncertainty; 1.4. The Removal of Uncertainty; 1.5. The Uses of Uncertainty; 1.6. The Calculus of Uncertainty; 1.7. Beliefs; 1.8. Decision Analysis; Chapter 2: Stylistic Questions; 2.1. Reason; 2.2. Unreason; 2.3. Facts; 2.4. Emotion; 2.5. Normative and Descriptive Approaches; 2.6. Simplicity; 2.7. Mathematics; 2.8. Writing; 2.9. Mathematics Tutorial; Chapter 3: Probability; 3.1. Measurement; 3.2. Randomness; 3.3. A Standard for Probability; 3.4. Probability.
- 3.5. Coherence3.6. Belief; 3.7. Complementary Event; 3.8. Odds; 3.9. Knowledge Base; 3.10. Examples; 3.11. Retrospect; Chapter 4: Two Events; 4.1. Two Events; 4.2. Conditional Probability; 4.3. Independence; 4.4. Association; 4.5. Examples; 4.6. Supposition and Fact; 4.7. Seeing and Doing; Chapter 5: The Rules of Probability; 5.1. Combinations of Events; 5.2. Addition Rule; 5.3. Multiplication Rule; 5.4. The Basic Rules; 5.5. Examples; 5.6. Extension of the Conversation; 5.7. Dutch Books; 5.8. Scoring Rules; 5.9. Logic Again; 5.10. Decision Analysis; 5.11. The Prisoners' Dilemma.
- 5.12. The Calculus and Reality5.13. Closure; Chapter 6: Bayes Rule; 6.1. Transposed Conditionals; 6.2. Learning; 6.3. Bayes Rule; 6.4. Medical Diagnosis; 6.5. Odds Form of Bayes Rule; 6.6. Forensic Evidence; 6.7. Likelihood Ratio; 6.8. Cromwell's Rule; 6.9. A Tale of Two Urns; 6.10. Ravens; 6.11. Diagnosis and Related Matters; 6.12. Information; Chapter 7: Measuring Uncertainty; 7.1. Classical Form; 7.2. Frequency Data; 7.3. Exchangeability; 7.4. Bernoulli Series; 7.5. De Finetti's Result; 7.6. Large Numbers; 7.7. Belief and Frequency; 7.8. Chance; Chapter 8: Three Events.
- 8.1. The Rules of Probability8.2. Simpson's Paradox; 8.3. Source of the Paradox; 8.4. Experimentation; 8.5. Randomization; 8.6. Exchangeability; 8.7. Spurious Association; 8.8. Independence; 8.9. Conclusions; Chapter 9: Variation; 9.1. Variation and Uncertainty; 9.2. Binomial Distribution; 9.3. Expectation; 9.4. Poisson Distribution; 9.5. Spread; 9.6. Variability as an Experimental Tool; 9.7. Probability and Chance; 9.8. Pictorial Representation; 9.9. Probability Densities; 9.10. The Normal Distribution; 9.11. Variation as a Natural Phenomenon; 9.12. Ellsberg's Paradox.
- Chapter 10: Decision Analysis10.1. Beliefs and Actions; 10.2. Comparison of Consequences; 10.3. Medical Example; 10.4. Maximization of Expected Utility; 10.5. More on Utility; 10.6. Some Complications; 10.7. Reason and Emotion; 10.8. Numeracy; 10.9. Expected Utility; 10.10. Decision Trees; 10.11. The Art and Science of Decision Analysis; 10.12. Further Complications; 10.13. Combination of Features; 10.14. Legal Applications; Chapter 11: Science; 11.1. Scientific Method; 11.2. Science and Education; 11.3. Data Uncertainty; 11.4. Theories; 11.5. Uncertainty of a Theory.