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Understanding uncertainty /
"We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill."--Dennis Lindley Accessibly written...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Hoboken, New Jersey :
Wiley.,
[2013]
|
| Edición: | Revised edition. |
| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Lindley, D. V. |q (Dennis Victor), |d 1923-2013. | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Understanding uncertainty / |c Dennis V. Lindley, Minehead, Somerset, England. |
| 250 | |a Revised edition. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Hoboken, New Jersey : |b Wiley., |c [2013] | |
| 300 | |a 1 online resource | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index. | ||
| 588 | 0 | |a Print version record and CIP data provided by publisher. | |
| 505 | 0 | |a Understanding Uncertainty; Contents; Preface; Prologue; Chapter 1: Uncertainty; 1.1. Introduction; 1.2. Examples; 1.3. Suppression of Uncertainty; 1.4. The Removal of Uncertainty; 1.5. The Uses of Uncertainty; 1.6. The Calculus of Uncertainty; 1.7. Beliefs; 1.8. Decision Analysis; Chapter 2: Stylistic Questions; 2.1. Reason; 2.2. Unreason; 2.3. Facts; 2.4. Emotion; 2.5. Normative and Descriptive Approaches; 2.6. Simplicity; 2.7. Mathematics; 2.8. Writing; 2.9. Mathematics Tutorial; Chapter 3: Probability; 3.1. Measurement; 3.2. Randomness; 3.3. A Standard for Probability; 3.4. Probability. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 3.5. Coherence3.6. Belief; 3.7. Complementary Event; 3.8. Odds; 3.9. Knowledge Base; 3.10. Examples; 3.11. Retrospect; Chapter 4: Two Events; 4.1. Two Events; 4.2. Conditional Probability; 4.3. Independence; 4.4. Association; 4.5. Examples; 4.6. Supposition and Fact; 4.7. Seeing and Doing; Chapter 5: The Rules of Probability; 5.1. Combinations of Events; 5.2. Addition Rule; 5.3. Multiplication Rule; 5.4. The Basic Rules; 5.5. Examples; 5.6. Extension of the Conversation; 5.7. Dutch Books; 5.8. Scoring Rules; 5.9. Logic Again; 5.10. Decision Analysis; 5.11. The Prisoners' Dilemma. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 5.12. The Calculus and Reality5.13. Closure; Chapter 6: Bayes Rule; 6.1. Transposed Conditionals; 6.2. Learning; 6.3. Bayes Rule; 6.4. Medical Diagnosis; 6.5. Odds Form of Bayes Rule; 6.6. Forensic Evidence; 6.7. Likelihood Ratio; 6.8. Cromwell's Rule; 6.9. A Tale of Two Urns; 6.10. Ravens; 6.11. Diagnosis and Related Matters; 6.12. Information; Chapter 7: Measuring Uncertainty; 7.1. Classical Form; 7.2. Frequency Data; 7.3. Exchangeability; 7.4. Bernoulli Series; 7.5. De Finetti's Result; 7.6. Large Numbers; 7.7. Belief and Frequency; 7.8. Chance; Chapter 8: Three Events. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 8.1. The Rules of Probability8.2. Simpson's Paradox; 8.3. Source of the Paradox; 8.4. Experimentation; 8.5. Randomization; 8.6. Exchangeability; 8.7. Spurious Association; 8.8. Independence; 8.9. Conclusions; Chapter 9: Variation; 9.1. Variation and Uncertainty; 9.2. Binomial Distribution; 9.3. Expectation; 9.4. Poisson Distribution; 9.5. Spread; 9.6. Variability as an Experimental Tool; 9.7. Probability and Chance; 9.8. Pictorial Representation; 9.9. Probability Densities; 9.10. The Normal Distribution; 9.11. Variation as a Natural Phenomenon; 9.12. Ellsberg's Paradox. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Chapter 10: Decision Analysis10.1. Beliefs and Actions; 10.2. Comparison of Consequences; 10.3. Medical Example; 10.4. Maximization of Expected Utility; 10.5. More on Utility; 10.6. Some Complications; 10.7. Reason and Emotion; 10.8. Numeracy; 10.9. Expected Utility; 10.10. Decision Trees; 10.11. The Art and Science of Decision Analysis; 10.12. Further Complications; 10.13. Combination of Features; 10.14. Legal Applications; Chapter 11: Science; 11.1. Scientific Method; 11.2. Science and Education; 11.3. Data Uncertainty; 11.4. Theories; 11.5. Uncertainty of a Theory. | |
| 520 | |a "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill."--Dennis Lindley Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. Completely reformatted and visually easy to read, this revised edition includes new material on the computational influence and breakthroughs of hierarchical Bayesian methods and inference; betting (Efron's dice); and the current recession; as well as additional illustrations, updated references, and simplified writing for clarity, ease of continuity and research. | ||
| 590 | |a ProQuest Ebook Central |b Ebook Central Academic Complete | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Probabilities. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Uncertainty |x Mathematics. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Decision making |x Mathematics. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Mathematical statistics. | |
| 650 | 2 | |a Probability | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Probabilités. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Incertitude |x Mathématiques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Prise de décision |x Mathématiques. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a probability. |2 aat | |
| 650 | 7 | |a MATHEMATICS |x Applied. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a MATHEMATICS |x Probability & Statistics |x General. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Decision making |x Mathematics |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Mathematical statistics |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Probabilities |2 fast | |
| 758 | |i has work: |a Understanding uncertainty (Text) |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCGVCq4fh9h47bTxBHGykrC |4 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork | ||
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Lindley, D.V. (Dennis Victor), 1923- |t Understanding uncertainty. |b Revised edition. |d Hoboken, New Jersey : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., [2013] |z 9781118650127 |w (DLC) 2013013977 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://ebookcentral.uam.elogim.com/lib/uam-ebooks/detail.action?docID=1574353 |z Texto completo |
| 938 | |a EBSCOhost |b EBSC |n 670064 | ||
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