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Predictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural Sciences and Economics /
Researchers in the natural sciences are faced with problems that require a novel approach to improve the quality of forecasts of processes that are sensitive to environmental conditions. Nonlinearity of a system may significantly complicate the predictability of future states: a small variation of p...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
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| Autor principal: | |
| Otros Autores: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Dordrecht :
Springer Netherlands : Imprint : Springer,
1994.
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- 1. Geophysics
- Karl Popper and the accountability of scientific models
- Evaluation of forecasts
- The Liouville equation and prediction of forecast skill
- An improved formula to describe error growth in meteorological models
- Searching for periodic motions in long-time series
- Comparison study of the response of the climate system to major volcanic eruptions and el nino events
- Detection of a pertubed equator-pole temperature gradient in a spectral model of the atmospheric circulation
- A simple two-dimensional climate model with ocean and atmosphere coupling
- Climate modelling at different scales of space
- 2. Agriculture
- Simulation of effects of climatic change on cauliflower production
- Validation of large scale process-oriented models for managing natural resource populations: a case study
- Uncertainty of predictions in supervised pest control in winter wheat, its price and its causes
- The implications and importance of non-linear responses in modelling the growth and development of wheat
- Growth curve analysis of sedentary plant parasitic nematodes in relation to plant resistance and tolerance
- 3. Population Biology
- Using chaos to understand biological dynamics
- Qualitative analysis of unpredictability: a case study from childhood epidemics
- Control and prediction in seasonally driven population models
- Simple theoretical models and population predictions
- Individual based population modelling
- Ecological systems are not dynamical systems: some consequences of individual variability
- Spatio-temporal organization mediated by hierarchy in time scales in ensembles of predator-prey pairs
- Continental expansion of plant disease: a survey of some recent results
- Modelling of fish behavior
- 4. Systems sciences
- Understanding uncertain environmental systems
- System identification by approximate realization
- Sensitivity analysis versus uncertainty analysis: when to use what?
- Monte Carlo estimation of uncertainty contributions from several independent multivariate sources
- Assessing sensitivities and uncertainties in models: a critical evaluation
- UNCSAM: a software tool for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of mathematical models
- Set-membership identification of nonlinear conceptual models
- Parameter sensitivity and the quality of model predictions
- Towards a metrics for simulation model validation
- Use of a Fourier decomposition technique in aquatic ecosystems modelling
- Multiobjective inverse problems with ecological and economical motivations
- An expert-opinion approach to the prediction problem in complex systems
- 5. Environmental Sciences
- Critical loads and a dynamic assessment of ecosystem recovery
- Uncertainty analysis on critical loads for forest soils in Finland
- Monte Carlo simulations in ecological risk assessment
- Sensitivity analysis of a model for pesticide leaching and accumulation
- Bayesian uncertainty analysis in water quality modelling
- Modelling dynamics of air pollution dispersion in mesoscale
- Uncertainty factors analysis in linear water quality models
- Uncertainty analysis and risk assessment combined: application to a bioaccumulation model
- Diagnosis of model applicability by identification of incompatible data sets illustrated on a pharmacokinetic model for dioxins in mamals
- Regional calibration of a steady state model to assess critical acid loads
- Uncertainty analysis for the computation of greenhouse gas concentrations in IMAGE
- 6. Economics
- Forecast uncertainty in economics
- Some aspects of nonlinear discrete-time descriptor systems in economics
- Quasi-periodic and strange, chaotic attractors in Hick's nonlinear trade cycle model
- Monte Carlo experimentation for large scale forward-looking economic models
- Erratic dynamics in a restricted tatonnement process with two and three goods
- Chaotic dynamics in a two-dimensional overlapping generation model: a numerical investigation
- Nonlinearity and forecasting aspects of periodically integrated autoregressions
- Classical and modified resealed range analysis: some evidence.