The global impact of the systemic economies and MENA business cycles /

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This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Cashin, Paul
Autor Corporativo: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Department
Otros Autores: Mohaddes, Kamiar, Raissi, Mehdi
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2012.
Colección:IMF working paper ; WP/12/255.
Temas:
Business cycles > China > Econometric models.
Business cycles > Europe > Econometric models.
Business cycles > United States > Econometric models.
Business cycles > Middle East > Econometric models.
Business cycles > Africa, North > Econometric models.
Cycles économiques > Chine > Modèles économétriques.
Cycles économiques > Europe > Modèles économétriques.
Cycles économiques > États-Unis > Modèles économétriques.
Cycles économiques > Afrique du Nord > Modèles économétriques.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS > International > Economics.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS > International > General.
Business cycles > Econometric models
North Africa
China
Europe
Middle East
United States
Acceso en línea:Texto completo
Descripción
Sumario:This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications.
Notas:Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed October 31, 2012).
"Middle East and Central Asia Department."
"October 2012."
Descripción Física:1 online resource (40 pages)
Bibliografía:Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN:9781475551914
1475551916
1475581645
9781475581645
1475596669
9781475596663

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