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The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy /
We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
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| Autor Corporativo: | |
| Otros Autores: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
[Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund,
©2012.
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| Colección: | IMF working paper ;
WP/12/253. |
| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
| Sumario: | We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2-2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output. |
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| Notas: | Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed October 31, 2012). "Middle East and Central Asia Department." "October 2012." |
| Descripción Física: | 1 online resource (41 pages) |
| Bibliografía: | Includes bibliographical references. |
| ISBN: | 9781475544558 1475544553 9781475596076 1475596073 |