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Forecast verification : a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science /
Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Otros Autores: | , |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Hoboken :
John Wiley & Sons,
2012.
|
| Edición: | 2nd ed. |
| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
MARC
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| 245 | 0 | 0 | |a Forecast verification : |b a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science / |c edited by Ian T. Jolliffe, David B. Stephenson. |
| 250 | |a 2nd ed. | ||
| 260 | |a Hoboken : |b John Wiley & Sons, |c 2012. | ||
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (304 pages) | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
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| 505 | 0 | |a Forecast Verification; Contents; List of Contributors; Preface; Preface to the First Edition; 1 Introduction; 1.1 A brief history and current practice; 1.1.1 History; 1.1.2 Current practice; 1.2 Reasons for forecast verification and its benefits; 1.3 Types of forecast and verification data; 1.4 Scores, skill and value; 1.4.1 Skill scores; 1.4.2 Artificial skill; 1.4.3 Statistical significance; 1.4.4 Value added; 1.5 Data quality and other practical considerations; 1.6 Summary; 2 Basic concepts; 2.1 Introduction; 2.2 Types of predictand; 2.3 Exploratory methods. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 2.4 Numerical descriptive measures2.5 Probability, random variables and expectations; 2.6 Joint, marginal and conditional distributions; 2.7 Accuracy, association and skill; 2.8 Properties of verification measures; 2.9 Verification as a regression problem; 2.10 The Murphy-Winkler framework; 2.11 Dimensionality of the verification problem; 3 Deterministic forecasts of binary events; 3.1 Introduction; 3.2 Theoretical considerations; 3.2.1 Some basic descriptive statistics; 3.2.2 A general framework for verification: the distributions-oriented approach. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 3.2.3 Performance measures in terms of factorizations of the joint distribution3.2.4 Diagrams for visualizing performance measures; 3.2.5 Case study: verification of cloud-fraction forecasts; 3.3 Signal detection theory and the ROC; 3.3.1 The signal detection model; 3.3.2 The relative operating characteristic (ROC); 3.4 Metaverification: criteria for assessing performance measures; 3.4.1 Desirable properties; 3.4.2 Other properties; 3.5 Performance measures; 3.5.1 Overview of performance measures; 3.5.2 Sampling uncertainty and confidence intervals for performance measures. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 3.5.3 Optimal threshold probabilitiesAcknowledgements; 4 Deterministic forecasts of multi-category events; 4.1 Introduction; 4.2 The contingency table: notation, definitions, and measures of accuracy; 4.2.1 Notation and definitions; 4.2.2 Measures of accuracy; 4.3 Skill scores; 4.3.1 Desirable attributes; 4.3.2 Gandin and Murphy equitable scores; 4.3.3 Gerrity equitable scores; 4.3.4 LEPSCAT; 4.3.5 SEEPS; 4.3.6 Summary remarks on scores; 4.4 Sampling variability of the contingency table and skill scores; 5 Deterministic forecasts of continuous variables; 5.1 Introduction. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 5.2 Forecast examples5.3 First-order moments; 5.3.1 Bias; 5.3.2 Mean Absolute Error; 5.3.3 Bias correction and artificial skill; 5.3.4 Mean absolute error and skill; 5.4 Second- and higher-order moments; 5.4.1 Mean Squared Error; 5.4.2 MSE skill score; 5.4.3 MSE of scaled forecasts; 5.4.4 Correlation; 5.4.5 An example: testing the 'limit of predictability'; 5.4.6 Rank correlations; 5.4.7 Comparison of moments of the marginal distributions; 5.4.8 Graphical summaries; 5.5 Scores based on cumulative frequency; 5.5.1 Linear Error in Probability Space (LEPS); 5.5.2 Quantile-quantile plots. | |
| 500 | |a 5.5.3 Conditional quantile plots. | ||
| 520 | |a Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas. | ||
| 588 | 0 | |a Print version record. | |
| 590 | |a ProQuest Ebook Central |b Ebook Central Academic Complete | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Weather forecasting |x Statistical methods. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Temps (Météorologie) |x Prévision |x Méthodes statistiques. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a NATURE |x Weather. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a SCIENCE |x Earth Sciences |x Meteorology & Climatology. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Weather forecasting |x Statistical methods |2 fast | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Jolliffe, I. T. | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Stephenson, David B. | |
| 758 | |i has work: |a Forecast verification (Text) |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCFDTPP8W4gWYJrcFxW69pd |4 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork | ||
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Jolliffe, Ian T. |t Forecast Verification : A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science. |d Hoboken : John Wiley & Sons, ©2012 |z 9780470660713 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://ebookcentral.uam.elogim.com/lib/uam-ebooks/detail.action?docID=849911 |z Texto completo |
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