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|a Fisher, Len.
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|a Crashes, crises, and calamities :
|b how we can use science to read the early-warning signs /
|c Len Fisher.
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|a New York :
|b Basic Books,
|c ©2011.
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|a Includes bibliographical references and index.
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|a pt. 1. A potted pre-history of prognostication. Do animals have crystal balls? -- The future eclipsed -- Galileo's hell -- pt. 2. How disasters happen. The stress of it all -- Runaway disaster -- The balance of nature and the nature of balance -- pt. 3. Imminent catastrophes : reading the signs. The chaotic ecology of dragons -- Teetering on the brink of catastrophe -- Models and supermodels -- Beware of mathematicians -- Weak signals as major early-warning signs -- Summary : The future of forecasting.
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|a Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, the author offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories.
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|i Print version:
|a Fisher, Len.
|t Crashes, crises, and calamities.
|d New York : Basic Books, ©2011
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