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Forecasting ECB monetary policy : accuracy is (still) a matter of geography /
Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank (...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
[Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund,
©2006.
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| Colección: | IMF working paper ;
WP/06/41. |
| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
| Sumario: | Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB)? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and clustering around informational hubs, as well as to country-specific economic conditions and traditions of independent central banking in the past. In large part, this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some systematic differences between analysts have been transitional and are indicative of learning, others are more persistent. |
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| Descripción Física: | 1 online resource (40 pages) |
| Bibliografía: | Includes bibliographical references. |
| ISBN: | 1283517574 9781283517577 9781451908374 1451908377 |