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The role of seasonality and monetary policy in inflation forecasting /
Adequate modeling of the seasonal structure of consumer prices is essential for inflation forecasting. This paper suggests a new econometric approach for jointly determining inflation forecasts and monetary policy stances, particularly where seasonal fluctuations of economic activity and prices are...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
[Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund,
©2006.
|
| Colección: | IMF working paper ;
WP/06/175. |
| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Kumah, Francis Y., |e author. | |
| 245 | 1 | 4 | |a The role of seasonality and monetary policy in inflation forecasting / |c prepared by Francis Y. Kumah. |
| 260 | |a [Washington, D.C.] : |b International Monetary Fund, |c ©2006. | ||
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (25 pages) : |b illustrations | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
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| 490 | 1 | |a IMF working paper, |x 2227-8885 ; |v WP/06/175 | |
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references. | ||
| 520 | |a Adequate modeling of the seasonal structure of consumer prices is essential for inflation forecasting. This paper suggests a new econometric approach for jointly determining inflation forecasts and monetary policy stances, particularly where seasonal fluctuations of economic activity and prices are pronounced. In an application of the framework, the paper characterizes and investigates the stability of the seasonal pattern of consumer prices in the Kyrgyz Republic and estimates optimal money growth and implied exchange rate paths along with a jointly determined inflation forecast. The approach uses two broad specifications of an augmented error-correction model-with and without seasonal components. Findings from the paper confirm empirical superiority (in terms of information content and contributions to policymaking) of augmented error-correction models of inflation over single-equation, Box-Jenkins-type general autoregressive seasonal models. Simulations of the estimated errorcorrection models yield optimal monetary policy paths for achieving inflation targets and demonstrate the empirical significance of seasonality and monetary policy in inflation forecasting. | ||
| 506 | |3 Use copy |f Restrictions unspecified |2 star |5 MiAaHDL | ||
| 533 | |a Electronic reproduction. |b [Place of publication not identified] : |c HathiTrust Digital Library, |d 2010. |5 MiAaHDL | ||
| 538 | |a Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. |u http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212 |5 MiAaHDL | ||
| 583 | 1 | |a digitized |c 2010 |h HathiTrust Digital Library |l committed to preserve |2 pda |5 MiAaHDL | |
| 588 | 0 | |a Print version record. | |
| 505 | 0 | |a Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC -- III. SEASONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CONSUMER PRICES -- IV. MODELING AND FORECASTING INFLATION -- V. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- References -- Appendix. Further Empirical Results | |
| 546 | |a English. | ||
| 590 | |a ProQuest Ebook Central |b Ebook Central Academic Complete | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Inflation (Finance) |x Forecasting. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Monetary policy. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Inflation (Finance) | |
| 650 | 2 | |a Inflation, Economic | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Politique monétaire. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Inflation. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Inflation |x Prévision. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Inflation (Finance) |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Inflation (Finance) |x Forecasting |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Monetary policy |2 fast | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Kumah, Francis Y. |t Role of seasonality and monetary policy in inflation forecasting. |d [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, Middle East and Central Asia Dept., 2006 |w (OCoLC)154663567 |
| 830 | 0 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/06/175. | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://ebookcentral.uam.elogim.com/lib/uam-ebooks/detail.action?docID=3014393 |z Texto completo |
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