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An evaluation of the world economic outlook forecasts /
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autor principal: | |
| Autor Corporativo: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
[Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund, Research Dept.,
2006.
|
| Colección: | IMF working paper ;
WP/06/59. |
| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
MARC
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| 037 | |n Title subscribed to via ProQuest Academic Complete | ||
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| 100 | 1 | |a Timmermann, Allan, |e author. | |
| 245 | 1 | 3 | |a An evaluation of the world economic outlook forecasts / |c Allan Timmermann. |
| 260 | |a [Washington, D.C.] : |b International Monetary Fund, Research Dept., |c 2006. | ||
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (106 pages) : |b illustrations | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
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| 347 | |a text file |2 rdaft |0 http://rdaregistry.info/termList/fileType/1002 | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a IMF working paper, |x 2227-8885 ; |v WP/06/59 | |
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references. | ||
| 588 | 0 | |a Print version record. | |
| 520 | |a The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the WEO forecasts for a very large cross section of countries, with particular emphasis on the recent recession and recovery. It assesses whether forecasts were unbiased and informationally efficient, and characterizes the process whereby WEO forecasts get revised as the time to the point of the forecast draws closer. Finally, the paper assess whether forecasts can be improved by combining WEO forecasts with the Consensus forecasts. The results suggest that the performance of the WEO forecasts is similar to that of the Consensus forecasts. While WEO forecasts for many variables in many countries meet basic quality standards in some, if not all, dimensions, the paper raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance. | ||
| 506 | |3 Use copy |f Restrictions unspecified |2 star |5 MiAaHDL | ||
| 533 | |a Electronic reproduction. |b [Place of publication not identified] : |c HathiTrust Digital Library, |d 2010. |5 MiAaHDL | ||
| 538 | |a Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. |u http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212 |5 MiAaHDL | ||
| 583 | 1 | |a digitized |c 2010 |h HathiTrust Digital Library |l committed to preserve |2 pda |5 MiAaHDL | |
| 505 | 0 | |a Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY -- II. DESCRIPTION OF WEO DATASET -- III. PROPERTIES OF OPTIMAL FORECASTS -- IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTS -- V. ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE -- VI. CAN THE WEO FORECAST ERRORS BE PREDICTED? -- VII. DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY -- VIII. REVISIONS FROM BOARD TO PUBLISHED FORECASTS -- IX. RECENT PERFORMANCE OF WEO FORECASTS -- X. LONG-RUN FORECASTING PERFORMANCE FOR G-7 ECONOMIES -- XI. COMPARISON OF WEO AND CONSENSUS FORECASTS -- XII. FORECAST COMBINATIONS -- XIII. RECOMMENDATIONS -- XIV. CONCLUSION -- References | |
| 546 | |a English. | ||
| 590 | |a ProQuest Ebook Central |b Ebook Central Academic Complete | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Economic development. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Economic forecasting |x Evaluation. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a International economic relations. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Prévision économique |x Évaluation. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Développement économique. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Relations économiques internationales. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a economic development. |2 aat | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Economic development |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Economic forecasting |x Evaluation |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a International economic relations |2 fast | |
| 710 | 2 | |a International Monetary Fund. |b Research Department. | |
| 758 | |i has work: |a An evaluation of the World Economic Outlook forecasts (Text) |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCG6bD4RvwyvPmgxk9JDMdP |4 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork | ||
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Timmermann, Allan. |t Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook forecasts. |d [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, Research Dept., 2006 |w (OCoLC)70165798 |
| 830 | 0 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/06/59. | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://ebookcentral.uam.elogim.com/lib/uam-ebooks/detail.action?docID=3014480 |z Texto completo |
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