How good are ex ante program evaluation techniques? : the case of school enrollment in PROGRESA /

This paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choi...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Bornhorst, Fabian, 1976- (Autor)
Autor Corporativo: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Department
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2009.
Colección:IMF working paper ; WP/09/187.
Temas:
Programa de Educación, Salud y Alimentación (Mexico City, Mexico) > Evaluation > Econometric models.
Programa de Educación, Salud y Alimentación (Mexico City, Mexico)
School attendance > Mexico > Evaluation > Econometric models.
Economic assistance, Domestic > Mexico > Evaluation > Econometric models.
Poor > Mexico > Evaluation > Econometric models.
Fréquentation scolaire > Mexique > Évaluation > Modèles économétriques.
Aide au développement économique régional > Mexique > Évaluation > Modèles économétriques.
Pauvres > Mexique > Évaluation > Modèles économétriques.
Mexico
Acceso en línea:Texto completo
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Ex Ante Evaluation:Theory; A.A Model of Occupational Choice; B. Estimation and Identification; C. Impact Simulation; III. Ex Ante Evaluation: Results; Table 1: Weekly Earnings and Per Capita Household Income; Table 2: Reported Status; Table 3: Sample Means; A. Estimation of the Earnings Vector; Table 4: Estimation of Earnings Equation; Table 5: Actual and Imputed Earnings; B. Estimation of the Choice Model; Table 6: Estimation of the Multinomial Logit Model; Table 7: Accuracy of Model Prediction (K=1).
  • Table 8: Estimation of Structural Parameters (K=1)Table 9: Accuracy of Model Prediction (K 0.5); C. Impact Simulation; Table 10: PROGRESA Transfer Scheme; Table 11: Estimated Transition Matrix; IV. The Benchmark: Ex post Analysis; A. Pre-Program Differences; Table 12: Pre-Program Differences: Boys; Table 13: Pre-Program Differences: Girls; B. Difference Estimation; Table 14: Difference Estimator: Boys; Table 15: Difference Estimator: Girls; Figure 1: Enrollment Ratio: Actual Effect of PROGRESA, D and DD Estimator; V. Comparison of Results and Discussion.
  • Figure 2: Simulated effect and D estimateTable 16: Simulation, D and DD Estimates, and Sensitivity to K; Table 17: Transition to Secondary School; VI. Concluding Remarks; VIII. Appendix; A. Key Elements of PROGRESA; B. Data Description; C. Method for Drawing Choice-consistent Residuals; D. Bootstrap Mechanism; VII. References; Footnotes.

Ejemplares similares