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How good are ex ante program evaluation techniques? : the case of school enrollment in PROGRESA /
This paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choi...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autor principal: | |
| Autor Corporativo: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
©2009.
|
| Colección: | IMF working paper ;
WP/09/187. |
| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Bornhorst, Fabian, |d 1976- |e author. |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCjrPFYqQ4xKVkVcrg8kyHP | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a How good are ex ante program evaluation techniques? : |b the case of school enrollment in PROGRESA / |c prepared by Fabian Bornhorst. |
| 260 | |a Washington, D.C. : |b International Monetary Fund, |c ©2009. | ||
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (35 pages) : |b color illustrations | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 347 | |a data file | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/09/187 | |
| 500 | |a At head of title: Fiscal Affairs Department. | ||
| 500 | |a "September 2009." | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references (page 31). | ||
| 520 | |a This paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choice is used to simulate the expected impact of the program. The results suggest that the transfer would indeed increase school attendance and do more so among girls than boys. While the simulated effect tends to be larger than the actual effect, the latter lies within bootstrapped confidence intervals of the simulation. | ||
| 588 | 0 | |a Print version record. | |
| 505 | 0 | |a Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Ex Ante Evaluation:Theory; A.A Model of Occupational Choice; B. Estimation and Identification; C. Impact Simulation; III. Ex Ante Evaluation: Results; Table 1: Weekly Earnings and Per Capita Household Income; Table 2: Reported Status; Table 3: Sample Means; A. Estimation of the Earnings Vector; Table 4: Estimation of Earnings Equation; Table 5: Actual and Imputed Earnings; B. Estimation of the Choice Model; Table 6: Estimation of the Multinomial Logit Model; Table 7: Accuracy of Model Prediction (K=1). | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Table 8: Estimation of Structural Parameters (K=1)Table 9: Accuracy of Model Prediction (K 0.5); C. Impact Simulation; Table 10: PROGRESA Transfer Scheme; Table 11: Estimated Transition Matrix; IV. The Benchmark: Ex post Analysis; A. Pre-Program Differences; Table 12: Pre-Program Differences: Boys; Table 13: Pre-Program Differences: Girls; B. Difference Estimation; Table 14: Difference Estimator: Boys; Table 15: Difference Estimator: Girls; Figure 1: Enrollment Ratio: Actual Effect of PROGRESA, D and DD Estimator; V. Comparison of Results and Discussion. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Figure 2: Simulated effect and D estimateTable 16: Simulation, D and DD Estimates, and Sensitivity to K; Table 17: Transition to Secondary School; VI. Concluding Remarks; VIII. Appendix; A. Key Elements of PROGRESA; B. Data Description; C. Method for Drawing Choice-consistent Residuals; D. Bootstrap Mechanism; VII. References; Footnotes. | |
| 546 | |a English. | ||
| 590 | |a ProQuest Ebook Central |b Ebook Central Academic Complete | ||
| 610 | 2 | 0 | |a Programa de Educación, Salud y Alimentación (Mexico City, Mexico) |x Evaluation |x Econometric models. |
| 610 | 2 | 7 | |a Programa de Educación, Salud y Alimentación (Mexico City, Mexico) |2 fast |
| 650 | 0 | |a School attendance |z Mexico |x Evaluation |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Economic assistance, Domestic |z Mexico |x Evaluation |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Poor |z Mexico |x Evaluation |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Fréquentation scolaire |z Mexique |x Évaluation |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Aide au développement économique régional |z Mexique |x Évaluation |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Pauvres |z Mexique |x Évaluation |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 651 | 7 | |a Mexico |2 fast |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39QbtfRkxCrqQ3XXbCkdP63kc | |
| 710 | 2 | |a International Monetary Fund. |b Fiscal Affairs Department. | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Bornhorst, Fabian, 1976- |t How good are ex ante program evaluation techniques? |d Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2009 |w (OCoLC)489735445 |
| 830 | 0 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/09/187. | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://ebookcentral.uam.elogim.com/lib/uam-ebooks/detail.action?docID=1608807 |z Texto completo |
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