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The political economy of revenue-forecasting experience from low-income countries /

This paper analyzes interference and timeliness in the revenue-forecasting process, using new data on revenue-forecasting practices in low-income countries. Interference is defined as the occurrence of a significant deviation from purely technical forecasts. A theoretical model explains forecasting...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autores principales: Danninger, Stephan (Autor), Cangiano, M. (Marco) (Autor), Kyobe, Annette (Autor)
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Dept., 2005.
Colección:IMF working paper ; WP/05/2.
Temas:
Acceso en línea:Texto completo

MARC

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245 1 4 |a The political economy of revenue-forecasting experience from low-income countries /  |c prepared by Stephan Danninger, Marco Cangiano, and Annette Kyobe. 
260 |a Washington, D.C. :  |b International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Dept.,  |c 2005. 
300 |a 1 online resource (30 pages) :  |b illustrations 
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504 |a Includes bibliographical references (pages 28-30). 
520 |a This paper analyzes interference and timeliness in the revenue-forecasting process, using new data on revenue-forecasting practices in low-income countries. Interference is defined as the occurrence of a significant deviation from purely technical forecasts. A theoretical model explains forecasting interference through government corruption. The data broadly supports the model, and the results are robust to alternative explanations. The paper also constructs three indices-transparency, formality, and organizational simplicity-that characterize revenue-forecasting practices, and assesses their effectiveness in producing an upfront-that is, timely-budget envelope. More transparent and simple forecasting processes lead to early budget constraints, while formality has no measurable effect. 
506 |3 Use copy  |f Restrictions unspecified  |2 star  |5 MiAaHDL 
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650 0 |a Tax revenue estimating  |z Developing countries  |x Econometric models. 
650 0 |a Tax revenue estimating  |x Corrupt practices  |z Developing countries. 
650 0 |a Corruption  |z Developing countries. 
650 6 |a Recettes fiscales  |x Estimation  |z Pays en voie de développement  |x Modèles économétriques. 
650 6 |a Corruption  |z Pays en voie de développement. 
650 7 |a Corruption  |2 fast 
650 7 |a Tax revenue estimating  |x Econometric models  |2 fast 
651 7 |a Developing countries  |2 fast 
700 1 |a Cangiano, M.  |q (Marco),  |e author.  |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCjqmjp38KPyDk8k7DbcCKm 
700 1 |a Kyobe, Annette,  |e author. 
710 2 |a International Monetary Fund.  |b Fiscal Affairs Department,  |e issuing body. 
758 |i has work:  |a The political economy of revenue-forecasting experience from low-income countries (Text)  |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCG6Vh7BRwvt44xMFBRKXtX  |4 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork 
776 0 8 |i Print version:  |a Danninger, Stephan.  |t Political economy of revenue-forecasting experience from low-income countries.  |d Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2005  |w (OCoLC)57563320 
830 0 |a IMF working paper ;  |v WP/05/2. 
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