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The political economy of revenue-forecasting experience from low-income countries /
This paper analyzes interference and timeliness in the revenue-forecasting process, using new data on revenue-forecasting practices in low-income countries. Interference is defined as the occurrence of a significant deviation from purely technical forecasts. A theoretical model explains forecasting...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Dept.,
2005.
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| Colección: | IMF working paper ;
WP/05/2. |
| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
| Sumario: | This paper analyzes interference and timeliness in the revenue-forecasting process, using new data on revenue-forecasting practices in low-income countries. Interference is defined as the occurrence of a significant deviation from purely technical forecasts. A theoretical model explains forecasting interference through government corruption. The data broadly supports the model, and the results are robust to alternative explanations. The paper also constructs three indices-transparency, formality, and organizational simplicity-that characterize revenue-forecasting practices, and assesses their effectiveness in producing an upfront-that is, timely-budget envelope. More transparent and simple forecasting processes lead to early budget constraints, while formality has no measurable effect. |
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| Descripción Física: | 1 online resource (30 pages) : illustrations |
| Bibliografía: | Includes bibliographical references (pages 28-30). |
| ISBN: | 128204589X 9781282045897 9781451905571 1451905572 |
| ISSN: | 2227-8885 ; |