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What goes up must come down? : house price dynamics in the United States /
This paper estimates the evolution of equilibrium real home prices in the United States and finds that despite recent declines, single-family homes remained 8 to 20 percent overvalued as of the first quarter of 2008. In the short run, the gap between actual and equilibrium prices does not exert powe...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autor principal: | |
| Autor Corporativo: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
©2008.
©2008 |
| Colección: | IMF working paper ;
WP/08/187. |
| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- I. Introduction; II. Long-Term Trends; III. Short-Run Dynamics; IV. Is The United States Experiencing a Nationwide House Price Bust?; V. Conclusion; References; Figures; 1. Price Indices for Existing Single-Family Homes, 2000Q1=100; 2. Real Home Price and Rent, 2000=100; 3. Actual and Predicted Real Home Prices by Region. Supply-Demand System; 4. Real OFHEO Purchase-Only House Price (Index; 2000=100); 5. Predicted Prices with Different Estimation End Points; 6. Actual and Predicted Real Home Prices by Region. Single Equation.
- 7. Real Home Prices
- Actual and Estimated in a Cointegrating Relationship Between Home Prices, Rents, and Interest Rates. Estimation with Different End Points8. Real Home Prices
- Actual and Estimated in a Cointegrating Relationship Between Home Price-to-Rent Ratio and Interest Rates. Estimation with Different End Points; 9. Real Home Price Predicted by a Cointegration Model; 10. Prediced Log Real Home (Cointegration Method) and Contributions; 11. Sales and Inventory for Sale of Existing Single Family Homes; 12. Simulation of Real Home Price Level.
- 13. Simulation of Real Home Price Quarterly Growth
- 14. Year-on-Year Growth Rates of Home Prices
- 15. Quarter-on-Quarter Growth Rates of Home Prices
- 16. Standard Deviation of Home Price Growth Rates Across Divisions
- 17. Diffusion Index for Year-on-Year Home Price Growth Across Census Divisions
- ; 18. Diffusion Index for Quarter-on-Quarter Home Price Growth Across Census Divisions
- Tables; 1. Estimated Supply and Demand System for Real Home Prices
- 2. Estimated Equations for Real Home Prices as a Function of Fundamentals
- 3. Home Price as a Function of Fundamentals with Land-Constraint Dummy.
- 4. Cointegrating Relationship Between Real House Prices, Rents, and Interest Rates
- 5. Home Price Appreciation and Price Gap
- 6. Short-Run Determinants of Real Home Price Appreciation
- 7. Evolution of Inventory-to-Sales Ratio.