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Global catastrophes and trends : the next fifty years /
From the Publisher: Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a "fatal discontinuity," a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Cambridge, MA :
MIT Press,
©2008.
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Smil, Vaclav. | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Global catastrophes and trends : |b the next fifty years / |c Vaclav Smil. |
| 260 | |a Cambridge, MA : |b MIT Press, |c ©2008. | ||
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (xi, 307 pages) : |b illustrations, maps | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
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| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references and indexes. | ||
| 588 | 0 | |a Print version record. | |
| 505 | 0 | |a 1. How (not) to look ahead -- 2. Fatal discontinuities. Natural catastrophes -- Encounters with extraterrestrial objects -- Volcanic mega-eruptions and collapses -- Influenza pandemics -- Violent conflicts -- Transformational wars -- Terrorist attacks -- Imaginable surprises -- 3. Unfolding trends. Energy transitions -- Dominant fuels, enduring prime movers -- Solar (nuclear?) civilization -- New world order -- Europe's place -- Japan's decline -- Islam's choice -- Russia's way -- China's rise -- The United States' retreat -- Place on top -- Dominance and decline -- Globalization and inequality -- 4. Environmental change. Global warming and its consequences -- Rising temperatures -- Ocean's rise, dynamics and composition -- Ecosystems and economies -- Other global changes -- Changing water and nitrogen cycles -- Loss of biodiversity and invasive species -- Antibiotic resistance -- Biosphere's integrity -- 5. Dealing with risk and uncertainty. Relative fears -- Quantifying the odds -- Rational attitudes -- Acting as risk minimizes -- The next 50 years. | |
| 520 | |a From the Publisher: Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a "fatal discontinuity," a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. This is not a book of forecasts or scenarios but one that reminds us to pay attention to, and plan for, the consequences of apparently unpredictable events and the ultimate direction of long-term trends. Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of global importance: the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources; demographic and political shifts in Europe, Japan, Russia, China, the United States, and Islamic nations; the battle for global primacy; and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental change-in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change-and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming. Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, relying on long-term historical perspectives and a distaste for the rigid compartmentalization of knowledge, Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe. | ||
| 546 | |a English. | ||
| 590 | |a ProQuest Ebook Central |b Ebook Central Academic Complete | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Environmental risk assessment. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Natural disasters. | |
| 650 | 2 | |a Natural Disasters | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Environnement |x Évaluation du risque. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Catastrophes naturelles. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a natural disasters. |2 aat | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Environmental risk assessment |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Natural disasters |2 fast | |
| 758 | |i has work: |a Global catastrophes and trends (Text) |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCGKbRR7MVfvyBRCbmqPFw3 |4 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork | ||
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Smil, Vaclav. |t Global catastrophes and trends. |d Cambridge, MA : MIT Press, ©2008 |w (DLC) 2007046675 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://ebookcentral.uam.elogim.com/lib/uam-ebooks/detail.action?docID=3338904 |z Texto completo |
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