Stalking the Black Swan : Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility /

Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard—many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Posner, Kenneth (Autor)
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: New York, NY : Columbia University Press, [2010]
Colección:Columbia Business School Publishing
Temas:
Business cycles.
Investment analysis.
Investments > Forecasting.
Recessions.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / General.
Acceso en línea:Texto completo
Texto completo
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • Frontmatter
  • Contents
  • Acknowledgments
  • Introduction
  • Part I. Uncertainty
  • 1. Forecasting in Extreme Environments
  • 2. Thinking in Probabilities
  • 3. The Balance Between Overconfidence and Underconfidence, and the Special Risk of Complex Modeling
  • Part II. Information
  • 4. Fighting Information Overload with Strategy
  • 5. Making Decisions in Real Time: How to React to New Information Without Falling Victim to Cognitive Dissonance
  • 6. Mitigating Information Asymmetry
  • Part III. Analysis and Judgment
  • 7. Mapping from Simple Ideas to Complex Analysis
  • 8. The Power and Pitfalls of Monte Carlo Modeling
  • 9. Judgment
  • Notes
  • Index

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