Long-Run Growth Forecasting

This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth in a large number of countries. It offers a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade. It is an attempt to fill the wide gap betwee...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Bergheim, Stefan (Autor)
Autor Corporativo: SpringerLink (Online service)
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg : Imprint: Springer, 2008.
Edición:1st ed. 2008.
Temas:
Macroeconomics.
Economic development.
Development economics.
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics.
Economic Growth.
Development Economics.
Acceso en línea:Texto Completo

MARC

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100 1 |a Bergheim, Stefan.  |e author.  |4 aut  |4 http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut 
245 1 0 |a Long-Run Growth Forecasting  |h [electronic resource] /  |c by Stefan Bergheim. 
250 |a 1st ed. 2008. 
264 1 |a Berlin, Heidelberg :  |b Springer Berlin Heidelberg :  |b Imprint: Springer,  |c 2008. 
300 |a XV, 189 p.  |b online resource. 
336 |a text  |b txt  |2 rdacontent 
337 |a computer  |b c  |2 rdamedia 
338 |a online resource  |b cr  |2 rdacarrier 
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505 0 |a The importance of long-run growth analysis -- Assessment of growth theories -- The dependent variable: GDP growth -- Labor input -- Physical capital -- Human capital -- Openness -- Spatial linkages -- Other determinants of GDP -- The theory of forecasting -- The evolution of growth empirics -- Estimation results -- Forecast competitions and 2006-2020 forecasts -- Conclusion and outlook. 
520 |a This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth in a large number of countries. It offers a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade. It is an attempt to fill the wide gap between the high demand for such models by commercial banks, international organizations, central banks and governments on the one hand and the limited supply on the other hand. Frequent forecast failures in the past (e.g. Japan 1990, Asia 1997) and the heavy economic losses they produced motivated the work. The book assesses the large number of different theories of economic growth, the drivers of economic growth, the available datasets and the empirical methods on offer. A preference is shown for evolutionary models and an augmented Kaldor model. The book uses non-stationary panel techniques to find pair-wise cointegration among GDP per capita and its main correlates such as physical capital, human capital and openness. GDP forecasts for the years 2006 to 2020 for 40 countries are derived in a transparent way. The author works for a commercial bank and has been the lead researcher in the bank's project called "Global Growth Centres 2020". 
650 0 |a Macroeconomics. 
650 0 |a Economic development. 
650 0 |a Development economics. 
650 1 4 |a Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics. 
650 2 4 |a Economic Growth. 
650 2 4 |a Development Economics. 
710 2 |a SpringerLink (Online service) 
773 0 |t Springer Nature eBook 
776 0 8 |i Printed edition:  |z 9783642096464 
776 0 8 |i Printed edition:  |z 9783540847205 
776 0 8 |i Printed edition:  |z 9783540776796 
856 4 0 |u https://doi.uam.elogim.com/10.1007/978-3-540-77680-2  |z Texto Completo 
912 |a ZDB-2-SBE 
912 |a ZDB-2-SXEF 
950 |a Business and Economics (SpringerNature-11643) 
950 |a Economics and Finance (R0) (SpringerNature-43720) 

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