Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management /

This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a "paradigm shift" that moves from single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies.  "Robust simulation" is a statistical approach that demonstrates future risk through simulat...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Taylor, Craig E. (Autor)
Autor Corporativo: SpringerLink (Online service)
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Cham : Springer International Publishing : Imprint: Springer, 2015.
Edición:1st ed. 2015.
Temas:
Natural disasters.
Computer simulation.
System theory.
Natural Hazards.
Computer Modelling.
Complex Systems.
Acceso en línea:Texto Completo
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • Introduction: Initial Queries Going Forward
  • The Deductivist Theory of Probability and Statistics
  • The Frequency Theory of Probability
  • Probability and Randomness as Beliefs: Bayesian Theory
  • More Challenges to Tradition: Extreme Value Diagnostics, Power Laws, and the Wobble
  • Mathematization of Statistics: Flexibility and Convergence
  • Robust Simulation and Non-linear Reasoning: Quantitative and Qualitative Examples
  • Managing Expectations: Qualitative Considerations And Quantitative Decision Procedures
  • Conclusions and Queries.

Ejemplares similares